The Interested Bystander’s 2026 Theater Awards Round-up

 

Schmigadoon! (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman 

The 79th Tony Award Nominations 

Play 

Liberation by Bess Wohl 

Play (Revival) 

Arthur Miller's Death of a Salesman 

GALECA Announces Dorian Theater Award Winners Including "Schmigadoon," "The Lost Boys" and "Prince Faggot"

 

The Lost Boys (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Announcing the winners of the Dorian Theater Awards, given out by GALECA, the LGBTQ entertainment writers and critics.

The 79th Tony Award Predictions – May 2026

Ragtime (c) Matthew Murphy

The 79th Tony Awards will be handed out on Sunday, June 7. I will post my final predictions the Friday before the awards. But here are my thoughts of who are the front-runners of the major categories as of two weeks before the ceremony. 

Enjoy! 

‘Schmigadoon!’ and “Prince Faggot” Lead LGBTQ Critics’ Dorian Theater Award Nominations for 2026

Schmigadoon! (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Here are the nominees of the 2025-2026 Broadway and Off-Broadway season for GALECA's Dorian Theater Awards. A note on eligibility: Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Liberation, and Titaníque were recognized by the Dorian Theater awards for their original Off-Broadway productions. As such, only “new elements” of their Broadway transfers were eligible for consideration this year. 

Winners of the 2026 Dorian Theater Awards will be announced on Monday, June 1, 2026. 

Theater: Recipients of The 80th Theatre World Awards

(c) Theatre World Awards

The 80th Theatre World Award Honorees for Outstanding Broadway or Off-Broadway Debut Performance have been announced for the 2025-2026 season.   The Awards witll be presented at a ceremony on Tuesday, June 2 at the Longacre Theatre.

Again, I am honored to be on the selection committee, and this is a great Class of 2026

The 79th Tony Award Nominations

Schmigadoon (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Here are the nominations for the 79th Tony Award, which will be handed out on Sunday, June 7, 2026. The host is P!nk. 

The Interested Bystander: Final 2025-26 Tony Award Nomination Predictions

The Lost Boys (c) Matthew Murphy

Most of the precursors have been announced. The Tony committee made their final rulings on category eligibility. It’s time for my final predictions for the 79th Tony Award Nominations, which will announced on Tuesday, May 5. There are questions in some categories as to how many nominees will be allowed, but I will make my best educated guess. 

Enjoy. 

The Interested Bystander: Early 2025-26 Tony Award Nomination Predictions

Every Brilliant Thing (c) Matthew Murphy

It’s the last day of March, and Broadway has started to stir after a rather uneventful early 2026. But there are a dozen shows opening before the Tony Awards cut-off, most of which have started previews or will do so in the next couple of days. 

What better time to make so early (and blind) Tony predictions based on what has opened so far and making assumptions based on reputation of the creators or actors of the show we haven’t seen yet. And there’s the issue of the Tony Awards Committee to set who is eligible for what award, which doesn’t get announced until a couple of days before nominations are voted on. 

So, this is just fun. No disrespect to the shows that I left out. I probably wouldn’t have thought The Outsiders or John Proctor is the Villain was going to be the hits they turned out to be before they opened.   The cutoff date is April 28.  The nominations will be announced on May 5.

Enjoy. 

The Interested Bystander’s Final Oscar Predictions for 2025-2026

Hamnet (c) Focus Features

For the longest time, it all seemed like a slam dunk for One Battle After Another for this year’s Oscars win (like Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once), following a lot of prizes from the critic prizes. And even though it does seem that the industry prizes like the DGA, PGA and BAFTA, for some reason a lot of weight has been given to the SAG Actor Awards, even though it would seem that the actor’s branch would go for Sinners, following other big ensemble, crowd pleaser that weren’t big Oscar players like Dreamgirls, The Help, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Black Panther and American Hustle. 

And while it is true that Sinners did overperform at the Oscar nominations with the most ever (at 16), I still think this genre horror (albeit with a very effective racism and slavery overtones) will be hard for the Academy to embrace. The years that CODA and Parasite surprised with underdog wins, the perceived frontrunners (The Power of the Dog and 1917, respectively) those years were losing momentum with the audience pleasers overtaking the artier choices. I don’t see that attitude with One Battle After Another. People still love Paul Thomas Anderson and do believe this is his best and most accessible film, like Christopher Nolan and before him. However, if Sinners wins a lot of awards early in the evening, everything goes out of the window, and this more popular film will win. Again, I will give the odds of the top nominees of each category (so you will see how tight the race is) as well as my vote (if I had one). 

Enjoy the predictions and have fun on Sunday, March 15 on ABC. 

Dorian Film Awards Endorses "Sinners" with the Most Wins for 2025 - 2026

Sinners (c) Warner Bros Pictures

March 3, 2026, Los Angeles – GALECA: The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics, the second largest entertainment journalists organization in the world, today announced the group’s 2026 Dorian Film Awards, with Sinners emerging as the year’s undeniable standout with 6 wins. In a rare alignment of commercial success and critical acclaim, Ryan Coogler’s sweeping historical horror epic, Sinners, became one of the few recent blockbusters to sweep the Dorians’ top prizes, underscoring its cultural resonance and artistic ambition. Earning Film of the Year and securing a commanding number of honors across major categories, including Director of the Year for Coogler, who was also named Wilde Artist of the Year, this recognition underscores its cultural resonance and artistic ambition. 

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions Path: February 2026

One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros.

With the Oscars heading into its last lap before they give out their awards on March 15, we look to the awards given out so far (and to come) to see if we have any clues as to who will win. 

Critic’s Choice: Given Out on Jan 14 
Golden Globes: Given Out on Jan 11 
DGA Awards: Given Out on Feb 7 

BAFTA (Predictions): To Be Given Out This Sunday, Feb 22 
SAG’s Actor Awards (Predictions): To Be Given Out Sunday, March 1 
Writer’s Guild Awards (Predictions): To Be Given Out Sunday, March 8 

TIB Oscar Prediction: As of Today, My Prediction, To Be Given Out Sunday, March 15 

Enjoy my predicted path to the Oscar winners. 

Film: Oscar Nominations 2025 - 2026

Sinners (c) Warner Bros

The 98th Academy Awards | 2026 

Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood 

Sunday, March 15, 2025 

Surprises (to me) in Red (!) 

Best Picture 

Bugonia 
F1 
Frankenstein 
Hamnet 
Marty Supreme 
One Battle after Another 
The Secret Agent 
Sentimental Value 
Sinners 
Train Dreams 

The Interested Bystander’s Final Oscar Nomination Predictions: January 2026

KPop Demon Hunters (c) Netflix

After a pretty uneventful and unsurprising December and early January, most of the films that were deemed worthy have been confirmed to be the frontrunners with barely a threat from any other whippersnapper film hoping to break through. The top three movies after the summer film festivals have always been One Battle After Another, Sinners and Hamnet and they seem unstoppable. I just hope there is some big surprise in one of the major categories this year. I am still holding on to the very slight chance of Jennifer Lawrence and Zoey Deutch making the acting categories (they are in my runners-up section). The nominations will be announced by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman on Thursday morning, Jan 23 

Enjoy!

2025-2026 Dorian Film Award Nominations Include "Marty Supreme" "Twinless" and "One Battle After Another"

Twinless (c) Lionsgate, Roadside Attractions

GALECA: The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics, the second largest entertainment journalists organization in the world, today announced the group’s 2026 Dorian Film Award nominations for the best in mainstream and LGBTQ-themed productions. Leading the pack: Director Paul Thomas Anderson's resonant dystopian thriller One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) with nine nods, Ryan Coogler's full-bodied vampire mystery Sinners (also W.B.) with eight, and Josh Safdie's brash-American satire Marty Supreme (A24) with five. 

GALECA members continue to celebrate less-hyped cinematic gems across its Dorian film categories (currently 22). For starters, A24's raunchy-sweet romance Pillion starring Alexander Skarsgård and Harry Melling and writer-director-star Eva Victor’s bittersweet wellness drama Sorry, Baby (also from A24) are among the titles up for LGBTQ Film of the Year. Other 2025 movie releases getting some love from the group: Director Mona Fastvold's feverish historical musical The Testament of Ann Lee, the twisted stalker comedy Twinless, and Viet and Nam, about two male Vietnamese coal miners in love that was banned in its native land.

Winners will be announced on March 6, 2026.

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: December 2025

Frankenstein (c) Netflix

'Twas the period before Christmas, when all through LA 
Many pre-Oscar awards were given, as is the way, 
So as Film twitter quiets for just a little rest 
Here are December’s Oscar nomination predictions, the best of the best. 

Enjoy! 

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: November 2025

Nouvelle Vague (c) Netflix

Before the critics’ groups start handing out their awards in December, here are some unbiased thoughts on who might get the Oscar nominations in January. The Oscars shortlist for a lot of the technical categories in mid-December will give us clues as well. I’ve seen the majority of the films being touted and here are my thoughts as of this Thanksgiving weekend. This month’s highlight category is the newest one for Best Casting. 

Enjoy. 

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: October 2025

Sinners (c) Warner Bros. Pictures

After the nailbiter of a year in 2024, the 2025 Oscar forecast and outlook seem to have some more sure things. It was obvious as the Oscar broadcast proceeded that Anora was going to be the big winner of the night, but it wasn’t until a couple of weeks before the Oscar ceremony that Anora was even in the top three of possible films to win. Prognosticators were still high on The Brutalist and there seemed to have been a last-minute surge of support for Conclave and Wicked (remember Jon M. Chu’s surprise win at the Critics' Choice Awards?). And even the wildcard and season-long villain Emilia Perez, which seem to have industry support amidst controversaries with the actions of some of the film’s actors as well as cries of poor representation of both trans people and Mexicans, had more buzz. But it was Anora, the Cannes Palm d’Or winner, that had the support of the Academy even as its chances ebbed and flowed. 

This year, it seems like a two-way race of popular box office and critical favorites Sinners and One Battle After Another. Both written and directed by auteur directors who are seen as due for Oscar glory, the momentum seems to be with Paul Thomas Anderson as of now, but Ryan Coogler could get a last-minute surge of support from critics' groups and year-end lists. The problem is that both films are being released by Warner Bros. and it may come down to which film gets more of its awards support. If they try to give equal weight to both films, a smaller film like Marty Supreme or Sentimental Value or the biggest threat to a big studio dominance, the indie darling Hamnet. 

Per usual, I will have my prediction in each category as well as two longshots and then a personal favorite that I doesn’t seem to have a lot of awards support now, but I hope they get support along the way. 

Enjoy. 

GALECA Critics Bestows Dorian TV Award Noms to "Andor," "The Last of Us" and Newbie Series "Overcompensating"

Overcompensating (c) Prime Video

Los Angeles, Calif. - June 16, 2025 - Adding some Hollywood fizz to Pride month, the 560-member strong GALECA: The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics announced its 16th Dorian TV Awards nominations for the best in television and streaming, mainstream to LGBTQ+ content. Voters in the organization, now the second largest entertainment journalists group in the world, write and work for some of the most respected and buzz-worthy media outlets in the U.S. and beyond. 

Vying for Best Drama: The twisty and surreal office drama Severance, seen on Apple TV+, the Disney Plus Star Wars universe spinoff Andor, and HBO/Max's ever-outrageous hotel drama The White Lotus—each of which took six Dorian nominations. Two more HBO/Max shows, the gritty new medical drama The Pitt and zombie spooker The Last of Us, are in the running with five. 

In the comedy arena, HBO/Max's Hacks—the Dorian Award winner here last year and in 2021—scored six nods, the same streamer's outgoing Somebody Somewhere grabbed four, with ABC's Abbott Elementary (another two-time Dorian winner) chalking up three. Also in the running: Apple TV+’s new, big and boisterous Hollywood satire The Studio and the second season of HBO/Max's genre-defying The Rehearsal, creator-star Nathan Fielder’s societal experiment that aims to prepare average folks for various potential, if wildly unlikely, life snags. 

The Interested Bystander’s 2025 Theater Awards Round-up

Maybe Happy Ending (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Here are some of the major awards given in theater in 2025.

The Interested Bystander: Final 2024-25 Tony Award Predictions

Maybe Happy Ending (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Now that all the pre-award announcements have been made, it’s time for my final predictions for the Tony Awards, which will air Sunday on CBS from Radio City Music Hall with Cynthia Erivo as the host.

Enjoy.