Hamnet (c) Focus Features
For the longest time, it all seemed like a slam dunk for One Battle After Another for this year’s Oscars win (like Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once), following a lot of prizes from the critic prizes. And even though it does seem that the industry prizes like the DGA, PGA and BAFTA, for some reason a lot of weight has been given to the SAG Actor Awards, even though it would seem that the actor’s branch would go for Sinners, following other big ensemble, crowd pleaser that weren’t big Oscar players like Dreamgirls, The Help, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Black Panther and American Hustle.
And while it is true that Sinners did overperform at the Oscar nominations with the most ever (at 16), I still think this genre horror (albeit with a very effective racism and slavery overtones) will be hard for the Academy to embrace. The years that CODA and Parasite surprised with underdog wins, the perceived frontrunners (The Power of the Dog and 1917, respectively) those years were losing momentum with the audience pleasers overtaking the artier choices. I don’t see that attitude with One Battle After Another. People still love Paul Thomas Anderson and do believe this is his best and most accessible film, like Christopher Nolan and before him. However, if Sinners wins a lot of awards early in the evening, everything goes out of the window, and this more popular film will win. Again, I will give the odds of the top nominees of each category (so you will see how tight the race is) as well as my vote (if I had one).
Enjoy the predictions and have fun on Sunday, March 15 on ABC.
One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros. Pictures
The Interested Bystander’s Final 97th Academy Awards Predictions
Picture
One Battle After Another (45%)
Sinners (40%)
TIB: Train Dreams
Hamnet (c) Focus Features
Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (97%)
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You (1%)
TIB: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Marty Supreme (c) A24
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (40%)
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (38%)
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (10%)
TIB: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros. Pictures
Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (34%)
Amy Madigan, Weapons (33%)
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (20%)
TIB: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros Studios
Supporting Actor
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (55%)
Delroy Lindo, Sinners (15%)
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (14%)
TIB: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (60%)
Ryan Coogler, Sinners (35%)
TIB: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Sinners (c) Warner Bros. Pictures
Original Screenplay
Sinners (75%)
Sentimental Value (10%)
TIB: Sentimental Value
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another (90%)
Hamnet (5%)
TIB: Train Dreams
KPop Demon Hunters (c) Netflix
Animated Feature
KPop Demon Hunters (80%)
Zootopia 2 (10%)
TIB: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Sentimental Value (c) NEON
International Feature:
Sentimental Value, Norway (55%)
The Secret Agent, Brazil (40%)
TIB: Sentimental Value
Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor (45%)
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (40%)
TIB: Come See Me in the Good Light
Original Song
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (75%)
“I Lied to You” from Sinners (20%)
TIB: “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Original Score
Sinners (85%)
One Battle After Another (5%)
TIB: Hamnet
Casting
Sinners (50%)
Marty Supreme (25%)
TIB: Sinners
Train Dreams (c) Netflix
Cinematography
Train Dreams (33%)
One Battle After Another (32%)
Sinners (20%)
TIB: Train Dreams
Frankenstein (c) Netflix
Costume Design
Frankenstein (65%)
Sinners (30%)
TIB: Frankenstein
Film Editing
One Battle After Another (75%)
F1 (10%)
TIB: One Battle After Another
Production Design
Frankenstein (80%)
Sinners (8%)
TIB: Hamnet
F1 (c) Warner Bros. Pictures
Best Sound
F1 (85%)
Sirāt (5%)
TIB: F1
Live Action Short Film
A Friend of Dorothy (45%)
Two People Exchanging Saliva (20%)
TIB: A Friend of Dorothy
Butterfly (c) Butterfly
Animated Short Film
Butterfly (80%)
The Girl Who Cried Pearls (10%)
TIB: Butterfly
All the Empty Rooms (c) Netflix
Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms (70%)
Children No More: Were and Are Gone (10%)
TIB: The Devil Is Busy
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein (90%)
Sinners (5%)
TIB: Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash (c) 20th Century Studios
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash (95%)
Sinners (1%)
TIB: Avatar: Fire and Ash
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