Sinners (c) Warner Bros. Pictures
After the nailbiter of a year in 2024, the 2025 Oscar forecast and outlook seem to have some more sure things. It was obvious as the Oscar broadcast proceeded that Anora was going to be the big winner of the night, but it wasn’t until a couple of weeks before the Oscar ceremony that Anora was even in the top three of possible films to win. Prognosticators were still high on The Brutalist and there seemed to have been a last-minute surge of support for Conclave and Wicked (remember Jon M. Chu’s surprise win at the Critics' Choice Awards?). And even the wildcard and season-long villain Emilia Perez, which seem to have industry support amidst controversaries with the actions of some of the film’s actors as well as cries of poor representation of both trans people and Mexicans, had more buzz. But it was Anora, the Cannes Palm d’Or winner, that had the support of the Academy even as its chances ebbed and flowed.
This year, it seems like a two-way race of popular box office and critical favorites Sinners and One Battle After Another. Both written and directed by auteur directors who are seen as due for Oscar glory, the momentum seems to be with Paul Thomas Anderson as of now, but Ryan Coogler could get a last-minute surge of support from critics' groups and year-end lists. The problem is that both films are being released by Warner Bros. and it may come down to which film gets more of its awards support. If they try to give equal weight to both films, a smaller film like Marty Supreme or Sentimental Value or the biggest threat to a big studio dominance, the indie darling Hamnet.
Per usual, I will have my prediction in each category as well as two longshots and then a personal favorite that I doesn’t seem to have a lot of awards support now, but I hope they get support along the way.
Enjoy.
The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions October 2025
Frankenstein (c) Netflix
Picture:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
It’s Just an Accident
Train Dreams
TIB Hopeful: Nouvelle Vague
No Other Choice (c) NEON
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
TIB Hopeful: Jafar Panahi, It was Just an Accident
Bugonia (c) Focus Features
Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
TIB Hopeful: Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Marty Supreme (c) A24
Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Joel Edgerton, Train Dream
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
TIB Hopeful: Dylan O’Brien, Twinless
Kiss of the Spider Woman (c) Lionsgate
Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Nina Hoss, Hedda
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
TIB Hopeful: Zoey Deutch, Nouvelle Vague
One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros. Picture
Supporting Actor
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
TIB Hopeful: Tracy Letts, A House of Dynamite
Sentimenal Value (c) NEON
Original Screenplay
Jay Kelly
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sorry, Baby
A House of Dynamite
Marty Supreme
TIB Hopeful: Nouvelle Vague
Hedda (c) Amazon MGM Studios
Adapted Screenplay
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Hedda
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Superman
Train Dreams
TIB Hopeful: The Wedding Banquet
Train Dreams (c) Netflix
Score:
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Göransson
Train Dreams, Bryce Dressner
The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Michael Giacchino
Hedda, Hildur Guðnadóttir
TIB Hopeful: A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, Joe Hisaishi
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