The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: October 2025

Sinners (c) Warner Bros. Pictures

After the nailbiter of a year in 2024, the 2025 Oscar forecast and outlook seem to have some more sure things. It was obvious as the Oscar broadcast proceeded that Anora was going to be the big winner of the night, but it wasn’t until a couple of weeks before the Oscar ceremony that Anora was even in the top three of possible films to win. Prognosticators were still high on The Brutalist and there seemed to have been a last-minute surge of support for Conclave and Wicked (remember Jon M. Chu’s surprise win at the Critics' Choice Awards?). And even the wildcard and season-long villain Emilia Perez, which seem to have industry support amidst controversaries with the actions of some of the film’s actors as well as cries of poor representation of both trans people and Mexicans, had more buzz. But it was Anora, the Cannes Palm d’Or winner, that had the support of the Academy even as its chances ebbed and flowed. 

This year, it seems like a two-way race of popular box office and critical favorites Sinners and One Battle After Another. Both written and directed by auteur directors who are seen as due for Oscar glory, the momentum seems to be with Paul Thomas Anderson as of now, but Ryan Coogler could get a last-minute surge of support from critics' groups and year-end lists. The problem is that both films are being released by Warner Bros. and it may come down to which film gets more of its awards support. If they try to give equal weight to both films, a smaller film like Marty Supreme or Sentimental Value or the biggest threat to a big studio dominance, the indie darling Hamnet. 

Per usual, I will have my prediction in each category as well as two longshots and then a personal favorite that I doesn’t seem to have a lot of awards support now, but I hope they get support along the way. 

Enjoy. 

Theater: “Crooked Cross” Is a Dire Warning of the Creeping Rise of Fascism by Looking to the Past in Germany, While “Prince Faggot” is a Raucous Look to the Future of a Possible Queer Royal

Crooked Cross (c) Todd Cerveris Photography

Theater: Crooked Cross 
Presented by the Mint Theater at Theatre Row 

Courtesy of the venerable Mint Theater, with its mandate to give new life to lost plays, writer Sally Carson reaches out from 1933 Germany to warn the U.S. of today about what can happen with complacency during the creeping dominance of fascism. Crooked Cross, based on her own novel, tells the story of Lexa Kluger (Ella Stevens), a young German woman, who at the start of the play is celebrating Christmas with a loving family that includes her parents (Liam Craig and Katie Firth), her two brothers (Gavin Michaels and Jacob Winter) and her fiancé Moritz (Samuel Adams). That tranquil and joyful scene leads into New Year’s Eve where the youths celebrate the coming of 1933 and how the newly elected Nazi party will bring prosperity back to Germany. As the year proceeds and Lexa’s brothers are slowly buying into the rhetoric of the party that is giving them jobs, the usually apolitical Lexa finds herself witnessing the radicalization of her country, especially towards Moritz, a beloved friend of the family now slowly being alienated and marginalized as a Jew. When first performed in Germany, Carson defended her play as less a rebuke to the ruling party than just a love story set with present times as a backdrop. But make no mistake, Carson is not only criticizing the Nazi party’s practice of mining the disillusionment of the young German people, but also its use of the Jewish people, already scrutinized, as a scapegoat. Not unlike the current US administration and their enablers demonizing trans people and the undocumented Latino population (as well as the NFL hiring an American pop singer ho plans to sing mostly in Spanish at next year’s Super Bowl). The racism and homophobia of MAGA are dismissed by many people, just as the antisemitism of the Nazis was considered “just” a part of their reformation doctrine (Project 2025, anyone, it’s right there). 

Theater: Broadway’s “Punch” Argues for Forgiveness in Divided Times; “And Then We Were No More” Gives A Chilling Glimpse of a Totalitarian Future; and “Toera” Is an Effective Coming-of-Age Drama

Punch (c) Matthew Murphy

Broadway: Punch 
At the Samuel Friedman Theatre 

There is a lot going on at the start of British playwright James Graham’s Punch, a play that is uniquely opening simultaneously on Broadway and the West End in the same month. We are introduced to Jacob Dunne (Will Harrison), a 19-year-old British man in Nottingham, who seems aimless after the divorce of his parents, and lives only to drink, take drugs and rumble with his mates, in a dazzling montage where he narrates what happened on the night that changed his life. That’s because Graham also intercuts the boisterous Jacob with a contrite, future Jacob as he is in some sort of group therapy. Jacob, misreading the events at a pub where his friends are drinking, punches a young man named James giving him a concussion that leads to his death about a week later. After serving time in prison, Jacob is told by his probation officer that James’ parents (played heartbreakingly by Sam Robards and Victoria Clark) want to meet him for both closure and understanding. The events of this play actually happened in 2011, and their meeting years later was facilitated by an organization named Remedi that promotes the concept of restorative justice to aid in the healing process of both victim and perpetrator. This is certainly a worthy cause, especially when we see how difficult but ultimately freeing this meeting is for everyone involved. The play is based on Jacob’s own book about the life-changing event, Right From Wrong, so while Graham doesn’t sugarcoat Jacob’s story, the moment of the actual punch is surprisingly lacking in specifics, and thus our sympathies cannot be fully given, as it’s obvious something about that night is deliberately being omitted so as to not muddle the uplifting ending of the play. This in no way dilutes the power of Harrison’s muscular and tireless Broadway debut as Jacob. The rest of the cast, who all play multiple characters, have at least one shining moment, especially Lucy Taylor as Jacob’s stressed-out mum. Adam Penford is directing both productions (David Shields plays Jacob in London’s West End), and while he favors the high adrenaline moments of Jacob’s world, it really is the quiet dignity of James’ parents that provides the emotional connection most needed by the audience. 

Film: A Sampling of the 63rd New York Film Festival: New Kathryn Bigelow, Luca Guadagnino, Joachim Trier, Richard Linklater and Ira Sachs Films

NYFF 63 (c) The Interested Bystander

Artistic Director Dennis Lim has curated his third New York Film Festival with some exciting new films that premiered in the summer festivals (Cannes, Venice, Telluride, Toronto) as well as a few world premieres of its own. Although never explicit in its programming, New York is the last major film festival before Oscar season and films that have benefited from their appearance in recent years include Nickel Boys, No Other Land, The Tragedy of Macbeth and The Irishman. 

Event: Halloweentown Comes to New York City in the Enchanting and Theatrical Disney Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail

Light Trail (c) The Interested Bystander

For the second year in a row, the New York Botanical Garden is opening its doors to Jack Skellington and the other spooky inhabitants of Halloweentown for the Disney Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail. The nighttime event is a separate ticket from the garden as it starts after the garden closes. Timed entries run from 7 pm to 9:15, and the whole trail lasts 30 to 60 minutes, depending on how long you linger with each artistic installation of sculpture, light and music (the movie soundtrack by Danny Elfman plays throughout). The trail runs from Wednesday to Sunday until November 30.