Thursday, September 17, 2026

The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: September 2026


La Bola Negra (c) Netflix

As we head out of the Fall Film Festivals, the awards chatter has begun, and the big question is if Christopher Nolan and repeat his success with Oppenheimer with his box office champ, The Odyssey. As of right now, there is no film as big as that summer hit coming for the rest of the year (I don’t think Avengers: Doomsday will make it to Best Picture), but there’s a chance for Dune: Part Three, the conclusion to Denis Villeneuve’s successful trilogy. Or will a smaller movie take Oscar glory, like Festival hits like All of a Sudden, La Bola Negra and Being Heumann (whose director Siân Heder’s last film, CODA was one of those smaller films that captured Oscars’ heart). The only sure thing is John Williams will be nominated for his last score for a Steven Spielberg movie, Disclosure Day. After that, anything goes. 


Here are my early predictions of who I think might have a chance for Oscars next year. A third of these will be gone from my list come December when the frontrunners start to pull ahead. Enjoy. 


All of a Sudden (c) NEON


Picture 

All of a Sudden 
Being Heumann 
La Bola Negra 
The Debut 
Dune: Part Three 
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth 
The Odyssey 
Project Hail Mary 
Toy Story 5 
Wild Horse Nine 

(possible)

Fatherland 
Possible Love 


Possible Love (c) Netflix

Director 

Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, La Bola Negra 
Ryusuke Hamaguci, All of a Sudden 
Siân Heder, Being Heumann 
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey 
Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland 


Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three 
Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love 



Elsinore (c) Focus Features

Actor 

Tom Cruise, Digger 
Matt Damon, The Odyssey 
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary 
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine 
Andrew Scott, Elsinore 


Ian McKellan, The Christophers 
Robert Pattinson, Primetime 


Being Heumann (c) Apple TV+

Actress 

Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden 
Sandra Hüller, Rose 
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann 
Julianne Moore, The Debut 
Inde Navarrette, Obsession 


Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day 
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey 


Tony (c) A24


Supporting Actor 

Riz Ahmed, Digger 
Antonio Banderas, Tony 
Paul Giamatti, The Debut 
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey 
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine 


Willem Dafoe, Werwulf 
Guy Pearce, Ink 


Fatherland (c) Mubi


Supporting Actress 

Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra 
Sandra Hüller, Fatherland 
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey 
Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care 
Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden 


Billie Piper, Elsinore 
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night 



Wild Horse Nine (c) Searchlight

Original Screenplay 

The Debut 
Elsinore 
Fatherland 
Tender Loving Care 
Wild Horse Nine
 


The Social Reckoning 
Possible Love 


Sense and Sensibility (c) Focus Features

Adapted Screenplay 

All of a Sudden 
Being Heumann 
Dune: Part Three 
La Bola Negra 
The Odyssey 


The Invite 
Sense and Sensibility




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