Monday, April 8, 2024

The Interested Bystander: Early 2023-24 Tony Award Nomination Predictions

Merrily We Roll Along (c) Matthew Murphy

April is very busy for Broadway and those who cover it. There are Broadway show openings in the double digits in the next few weeks, all hoping to get some Tony Award nominations before the deadline. So, it’s sort of silly to predict who will get award nominations, since most of the shows are in previews right now. But what kind of awards prognosticator would I be if I didn’t try. So, based on reputation, out-of-town or off-Broadway reviews, here are Tony Award predictions, with most of the nominees being sight unseen. 

Plus, the Tony Awards committee also has to make rulings on eligibility of some nominees as to who is a lead and supporting (How big a part is Jim Parson’s role in Mother Play? Could he be placed in the Lead Actor category?) or if productions are new or revivals (Is Mary Jane a new play or will it be deemed a revival like Appropriate, both premiered off-Broadway in the last ten years)? These are my best guesstimates. 

The Tony Award nominations will be announced on April 30 and the statuettes will be handed out on June 16. 


The Interested Bystander’s 
77th Tony Award Nomination Predictions 


Prayer for the French Republic (c) Jeremy Daniel


Mother Play by Paula Vogel 
Patriots by Peter Morgan 
Prayer for the French Republic by Joshua Harmon 
Stereophonic by David Adjmi 

Jaja’s African Hair Braiding by Jocelyn Bioh 
I Need That by Theresa Reback 

Play Revival 

Appropriate by Brandon Jacobs-Jenkins 
An Enemy of the People by Amy Herzog 
Uncle Vanya by Heidi Schreck 
Mary Jane by Amy Herzog 

Purlie Victorious 

Appropriate (c) Joan Marcus

Lead Actress (Play) 

Jessica Lange – Mother Play 
Rachel McAdams – Mary Jane 
Sarah Paulson – Appropriate 
Amy Ryan – Doubt 

Laurie Metcalf – Grey House 
Anika Noni Rose – Uncle Vanya 

Lead Actor (Play) 

Leslie Odom Jr. – Purlie Victorious 
Will Keen – Patriots 
Jeremy Strong – An Enemy of the People 
Michael Stuhlbarg – Patriots 

Steve Carell – Uncle Vanya 
Liev Schreiber – Doubt 

Purlie Victorious (c) Marc J. Franklin

Featured Actress (Play) 

Francis Benhamou – Prayer for the French Republic 
Quincy Tyler Bernstine – Doubt 
Celia Keenan Bolger – Mother Play 
Sarah Pidgeon – Stereophonic 
Kara Young – Purlie Victorious 

Betsy Aidem – Prayer for the French Republic 
Zenzi Williams – Jaja’s African Hair Braiding 

Featured Actor (Play) 

Will Brill – Stereophonic 
Eli Gelb – Stereophonic 
Michael Imperioli – Enemy of the People 
Alfred Molina – Uncle Vanya 
Jim Parsons – Mother Play 

Jay O. Sanders – Purlie Victorious 
Aria Shahghasemi – Prayer for the French Republic 

Director (Play) 

Daniel Aukin – Stereophonic 
David Cromer – Prayer for the French Republic 
Rupert Goold – Patriots 
Kenny Leon – Purlie Victorious 
Lila Neugebauer – Appropriate 

Sam Gold - An Enemy of the People
Lila Neugebauer – Uncle Vanya 


Back to the Future (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman


Back to the Future: The Musical 
The Great Gatsby 
Hell’s Kitchen 

Days of Wine and Roses 
Here Lies Love 

The Who's Tommy (c) Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman

Musical Revival 

Gutenberg! The Musical! 
Merrily We Roll Along 
The Who’s Tommy 

Monty Python’s Spamalot 
The Wiz 

Book of a Musical 

Back to the Future by Bob Gale 
Days of Wine and Roses by Craig Lucas 
Hell’s Kitchen by Kristoffer Diaz 
The Outsiders by Adam Rapp and Justin Levine 
Suffs by Shaina Taub 

How to Dance in Ohio by Rebekah Greer Melocik
Lempicka by Matt Gould and Carson Kreitzer 

Score of a Production 

Back to the Future by Alan Silvestri and Glen Ballard 
Days of Wine and Roses by Adam Guettel 
Here Lies Love by David Byrne and Fatboy Slim 
Stereophonic by Will Butler 
Suffs by Shaina Taub 

Harmony by Barry Manilow
Lempicka by Matt Gould and Carson Kreitzer 

Days of Wine and Roses (c) Joan Marcus

Lead Actress in a Musical 

Eden Espinosa – Lempicka 
Maleah Joi Moon – Hell’s Kitchen 
Kelli O’Hara – Days of Wine and Roses 
Gayle Rankin – Cabaret 
Eva Noblezada – The Great Gatsby 

Nichelle Lewis – The Wiz 
Shaina Taub – Suffs 

Lead Actor in a Musical 

Ali Louis Bourzgui – The Who’s Tommy 
Jonathan Groff – Merrily We Roll Along 
Jeremy Jordan – The Great Gatsby 
Casey Likes – Back to the Future: The Musical 
Eddie Redmayne – Cabaret 

Brian d’Arcy James – Days of Wine and Roses 
Brody Grant – The Outsiders 

The Notebook (c) Julieta Carvantes

Featured Actress in a Musical 

Shoshana Bean – Hell’s Kitchen 
Nikki M. James – Suffs 
Lindsay Mendez – Merrily We Roll Along 
Bebe Neuwirth – Cabaret 
Maryann Plunkett – The Notebook 

Beth Leavel – Lempicka 
Kecia Lewis – Hell’s Kitchen 

Featured Actor in a Musical 

Roger Bart – Back to the Future: The Musical 
Daniel Radcliffe – Merrily We Roll Along 
Conrad Ricamora – Here Lies Love 
Steven Skybell – Cabaret 
Ricky Ubeda – Illinoise 

Dorian Harewood – The Notebook 
Paul Alexander Nolan – Water for Elephants 

Here Lies Love (c) Billy Bustamante, Matthew Murphy, Evan Zimmerman

Director (Musical) 

Rebecca Frecknall – Cabaret 
Maria Friedman – Merrily We Roll Along 
Michael Greif – Hell’s Kitchen 
Leigh Silverman – Suffs 
Alex Timbers – Here Lies Love 

Rachel Chavkin – Lempicka  
John Rando – Back to the Future: The Musical 

If you want to comment on these reviews, please do so on my 
Instagram account.  All reviews have their own post.  And please follow to know when new reviews are released.