The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions: October 2023

Killers of the Flower Moon (c) Apple TV+

Even with the SAG-AFTRA strike (with actors unable to promote any movies without a waiver, and studios unable to send For Your Consideration materials to actors – at least for the SAG Awards), the films vying for awards have mostly kept rolling out (RIP Dune, Part 2 to 2024) and I have now seen some of these contenders. However, seeing the movies has a danger that personal opinion will overshadow Academy preferences for films like CODA and Green Book. 

We also have our first award nominations of the season with The Gotham Awards which provided an interesting look at the first batch of lower budget film getting awards attention from some predictable ones (Past Lives, All of Us Strangers) to provocative ones (Showing Up, Passages). 

Here are my predictions for October. Please note, there have still been no industry or public screenings of Ridley Scott’s Napoleon or the musical version of The Color Purple. 

Enjoy. 

The Interested Bystanders 
2023-2024 Oscar Predictions

Poor Things (c) Searchlight Pictures

Best Picture 

All of Us Strangers 
American Fiction 
Barbie 
The Holdovers 
Killers of the Flower Moon 
Maestro 
Oppenheimer 
Past Lives 
Poor Things 
The Zone of Interest 

(possible)
Air 
The Color Purple 

The Holdovers (c) Focus Features

Director 

Greta Gerwig – Barbie 
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer 
Alexander Payne – The Holdovers 
Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon 
Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things 

Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest 
Cord Jefferson – American Fiction 

Origin (c) NEON

Actress in a Leading Role 

Annette Bening – Nyad 
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin 
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon 
Carey Mulligan – Maestro 
Emma Stone – Poor Things 

Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple 
Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall 

American Fiction (c) Amazon Studios 

Actor in a Leading Role 

Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon 
Colman Domingo – Rustin 
Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer 
Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers 
Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction 

Bradley Cooper – Maestro 
Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers 

Are You There God, It's Me Margaret (c) Lionsgate

Actress in a Supporting Role 

Jodie Foster – Nyad 
Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers 
Taraji P Henson – The Color Purple 
Rachel McAdams – Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret 
Da'Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers 

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer 
Niecy Nash-Betts – Origin 

Barbie (c) Warner Bros Picture

Actor in a Supporting Role 

Robert DeNiro – Killers of the Flower Moon 
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer 
Ryan Gosling – Barbie 
Charles Melton – May December 
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things 

Willem Dafoe – Poor Things 
Paul Mescal – All of Us Strangers 

Anatomy of a Fall (c) NEON

Original Screenplay 

Air 
Anatomy of a Fall 
Barbie 
The Holdovers 
Past Lives 

May December 
Origin

Oppenheimer (c) Universal Pictures

Adapted Screenplay 

All of Us Strangers 
American Fiction 
Killers of the Flower Moon 
Oppenheimer 
Poor Thing 

Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret 
The Zone of Interest

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