Nouvelle Vague (c) Netflix
Before the critics’ groups start handing out their awards in December, here are some unbiased thoughts on who might get the Oscar nominations in January. The Oscars shortlist for a lot of the technical categories in mid-December will give us clues as well. I’ve seen the majority of the films being touted and here are my thoughts as of this Thanksgiving weekend. This month’s highlight category is the newest one for Best Casting.
Enjoy.
The Interested Bystander’s Oscar Predictions October 2025
Jay Kelly (c) Netflix
Best Picture:
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It’s Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
One Battle After Another (c) Warner Bros.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
Park Chan-wook — No Other Choice
Ryan Coogler — Sinners
Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao — Hamnet
Clint Bentley — Train Dreams
Jafar Panahi — It Was Just an Accident
Die My Love (c) MUBI
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
Jennifer Lawrence — Die, My Love
Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
Amanda Seyfried — The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone — Bugonia
Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Sydney Sweeney — Christy
The Secret Agent (c) NEON
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
George Clooney — Jay Kelly
Joel Edgerton — Train Dream
Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Wicked: For Good (c) Universal Pictures
Best Supporting Actress
Zoey Deutch — Nouvelle Vague
Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande — Wicked for Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
Gwyneth Paltrow — Marty Supreme
Emily Watson — Hamnet
Frankenstein (c) Netflix
Best Supporting Actor
Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
Benicio del Toro — One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal — Hamnet
Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
Adam Sandler — Jay Kelly
Andrew Scott — Blue Moon
Sorry, Baby (c) A24
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sorry, Baby
Blue Moon
Marty Supreme
Hamnet (c) Focus Features
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frankenstein
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Hedda
Wake Up Dead Man (c) Netflix
Best Casting
Hamnet — Nina Gold
Marty Supreme — Jennifer Venditti
Nouvelle Vague — Stéphane Batut
One Battle After Another — Cassandra Kulukundis
Sinners — Francine Maisler
Jay Kelly — Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — Bret Howe & Mary Vernieu
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