Film: The Interested Bystander’s Final Oscar Nomination Predictions: January 2023

Elvis (c) Warner Bros Picture

It’s finally here. The Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan 24th at 8:30am ET. And ever since September, I have been putting out my guesses as to who will get nominated. I have dropped some people who I thought were front runners like Anthony Hopkins in “Armageddon Time” and Vicky Krepes from “Corsage” as well as switcheroo categories as I thought possibly Brendan Gleason might get nominated for Actor alongside Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin” but that does seem unlikely now. I do think there’s a chance Michelle Williams might get nominated for “The Fabelmans” in Supporting Actress since her shot at Best Actress is the most tenuous. But I've predicted “RRR” to get a Best Picture nomination since September, and I will stick to that. 

So, here, finally, are my predictions of who will be nominated for an Academy Award in for the film year 2022, along with two longshots in each category. 

Best Picture:

Frontrunners: 
All Quiet on the Western Front 
Avatar: The Way of Water 
The Banshees of Inisherin 
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Elvis 
The Fabelmans 
RRR 
TÁR 
Top Gun: Maverick 
Women Talking 

Possible: 
Babylon 
The Whale 

Best Director 

Everything Everywhere All At Once (c) A24

Frontrunners: 
James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water 
Todd Field – TÁR 
Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin 
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans 

Possible: 
Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front 
S.S. Rajamouli – RRR 

Best Actor 

Frontrunners: 
Austin Butler – Elvis 
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 
Brendan Fraser – The Whale 
Paul Mescal – Aftersun 
Bill Nighy – Living 

Possible: 
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection 
Adam Sandler – Hustle 

Best Actress 

Frontrunners: 
Cate Blanchett – TÁR 
Viola Davis – The Woman King 
Danielle Deadwyler – Till 
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans 
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

 
Possible: 
Ana de Armis – Blonde 
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie 

Best Supporting Actor 

The Fabelmans (c) Universal Pictures

Frontrunners: 
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans 
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin 
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin 
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

 

Possible: 

Woody Harrison – Triangle of Sadness 
Ben Whishaw – Women Talking 

Best Supporting Actress 

Frontrunners: 
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
Hong Chau – The Whale 
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin 
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once 
Carey Mulligan – She Said 

Possible: 
Dolly De Leon – Triangle of Sadness 
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Best Original Screenplay 

Triangle of Sadness (c) NEON

Frontrunners: 
The Banshees of Inisherin 
Everything Everywhere All at Once 
The Fabelmans 
TÁR 
Triangle of Sadness 

Possible: 
Aftersun 
Nope 

 

Best Adapted Screenplay 

Frontrunners: 
All Quiet on the Western Front 
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery 
Living 
The Whale 
Women Talking 

Possible: 
White Noise 
She Said 

International Feature 

Argentina, 1985 (c) Amazon Studios

Frontrunners:
Belgium, Close 
Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front 
Mexico, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths 
Poland, EO 
South Korea, Decision to Leave

 
Possible:
Argentina, Argentina, 1985 
France, Saint Omer 

Animated Feature 

Turning Red (c) Disney Pixar

Frontrunners:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On 
Minions: The Rise of Gru 
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 
Turning Red 

Possible:
Apollo 10 1/2 A Space Age Childhood 
Wendell & Wild 

Documentary Feature 

Frontrunners:
All That Breathes 
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 
Descendant 
Fire of Love 
Navalny 

Possible:
The Janes 
Moonage Daydream 

Music (Original Score) 

Frontrunners:
Volker Bertelman, All Quiet on the Western Front 
Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin 
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking 
Justin Hurwitz, Babylon 
John Williams. The Fabelmans 

Possible:
Terence Blanchard, The Woman King 
Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Music (Original Song) 

Top Gun: Maverick (c) Warner Bros Pictures

Frontrunners:
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited 
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick 
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR 
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto 

Possible:
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise

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